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Abstract


VALİDİTY OF SPLASH IN TURKEY IN OUTSTANDING THESIS PERIOD: AN ECONOMETRİC ANALYSİS

There are various studies in the literature regarding the Peacock-Wiseman Displacement thesis, which argues that public expenditures jumped during extraordinary times and will not become old after the extraordinary period.While some of these studies support the thesis, some studies have concluded that The Displacement Thesis is not valid.In this study, for the 1975-2020 period in Turkey "Thesis of Displacement" validity was tested. In this direction, BaiPerron and CUSUMQ structural breakage tests were preferred in the analysis using central government expenditures and GDP data. Five years of structural break were determined as a result of the Bai-Perron test, and these structural breaks were found to match with the CUSUMQ test result. Analysis of the results identified structural break year, the crisis in Turkey, chaos, suddenly experiencing social and economic changes as the epidemic diseasef has been shown to correspond to an extraordinary period. In this context; Chaos followed by martial law in 1980-1985, the debt crisis was experienced in 1994, the February crisis took effect in 2001-2003, the global mortgage crisis period in 2008-2009 and the pandemic epidemic period after the coup attempt and the post-pandemic period in 2015-2020 were considered as breaking periods. During these periods, public expenditures jumped and increase in real terms and after the extraordinary period is over, they cannot return to their previous level.When the analysis results of the findings evaluate, the time period covering the years of 1975-2020 in Turkey has concluded that the The Displacement Thesis is valid for five extraordinary leap years.



Keywords
Crisis, extraordinary periods, pandemic, public spending, Bai-Perron test



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