SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF HOUSEHOLD SIZE IN TÜRKİYE: A PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS OF CHANGE BETWEEN 2008 AND 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22775672Keywords:
Household Size, Demographic Change, Spatial Analysis, Spatial Planning, Türkiye, Spatial AutocorrelationAbstract
Average household size is a fundamental demographic indicator that directly influences population projections, housing demand, and the planning of public services such as education, healthcare, and transportation. This study examines temporal and spatial changes in average household size across the 81 provinces of Türkiye between 2008 and 2025. Provincial household size data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, Global Moran’s I, and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA). The findings show that average household size declined from 4.32 persons in 2008 to 3.11 persons in 2025, representing an overall reduction of approximately 28%. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test confirmed that this decline was statistically significant and occurred in all 81 provinces. Despite the nationwide decrease, clear spatial differences persisted. Spatial autocorrelation analyses further demonstrated that both average household size and the magnitude of its change exhibited strong spatial clustering, indicating that neighboring provinces tended to have similar household sizes and comparable levels of decline. Overall, the study shows that the transformation of household structure did not occur uniformly across Türkiye but was shaped by demographic and socioeconomic processes operating at different rates across regions. By integrating temporal and spatial analyses, this study provides a comprehensive provincial-scale assessment of household size change in Türkiye and contributes to a better understanding of the spatial patterns of demographic transformation, as well as to population projections and spatial planning.
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