VALIDITY OF SPLASH IN TURKEY IN OUTSTANDING THESIS PERIOD: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Abstract

There are various studies in the literature regarding the Peacock-Wiseman Displacement thesis,
which argues that public expenditures jumped during extraordinary times and will not become old
after the extraordinary period.While some of these studies support the thesis, some studies have
concluded that The Displacement Thesis is not valid.In this study, for the 1975-2020 period in
Turkey "Thesis of Displacement" validity was tested. In this direction, BaiPerron and CUSUMQ
structural breakage tests were preferred in the analysis using central government expenditures and
GDP data. Five years of structural break were determined as a result of the Bai-Perron test, and
these structural breaks were found to match with the CUSUMQ test result. Analysis of the results
identified structural break year, the crisis in Turkey, chaos, suddenly experiencing social and
economic changes as the epidemic diseasef has been shown to correspond to an extraordinary
period. In this context; Chaos followed by martial law in 1980-1985, the debt crisis was
experienced in 1994, the February crisis took effect in 2001-2003, the global mortgage crisis period
in 2008-2009 and the pandemic epidemic period after the coup attempt and the post-pandemic
period in 2015-2020 were considered as breaking periods. During these periods, public expenditures
jumped and increase in real terms and after the extraordinary period is over, they cannot return to
their previous level.When the analysis results of the findings evaluate, the time period covering the
years of 1975-2020 in Turkey has concluded that the The Displacement Thesis is valid for five
extraordinary leap years.